In the movie “Don’t Look Up,” Earth is doomed after a successful mission to divert a comet is cancelled when the meddlesome billionaire discovers that it may contain precious minerals that could be profited from. There are disturbing parallels between this and the sudden volte face in US policy that occurred since the beginning of Trump’s second term. Since the start of the war in February 2022, support for Ukraine has been about the security of the free world, and suddenly it’s all about “precious minerals?” If this is what was the biggest strategic interest, why was it not the top priority for Biden? Or even Trump during his first term because there was a war in Ukraine then? What is different about this administration? Is it the Project 2025 agenda and the new cohort of backroom influencers that come with that? Or is this something to do with the big tech moguls who are suddenly flocking around Trump?
Mark Rylance as irritating and dangerous tech billionaire Peter Isherwell in the movie “Don’t Look Up”
Sometimes it can be a good idea to step away from the official narrative, particularly one that pops up so suddenly, and which fortuitously levers Ukraine into position as a plum pudding to be divided up by two great powers. Sometimes it is better to step away and look at salient material conditions and themes that are taking shape in the ecosystem.
James Gillray - the Plum Pudding in danger
For example, Ukraine used to be called the “bread basket of Europe,” and the Austrian corporal with the small moustache said “he who controls Ukraine, controls Europe.” In 2010 Russia and Ukraine had bad harvests which caused genuine hardship. What autocrat seeking strategic independence or even the autarky that the Austrian corporal sought, would not look enviously at the vast wheat fields of Ukraine’s fertile steppes?
Of Ukraine and Russia, which has the most minerals, with the generally most sought after mineral being oil? Well, Russia of course, and one of the aims of Trump’s deal making is to end sanctions on Russia and bring her back in from the cold. That would get the oil and gas flowing. Trump is big oil: “drill, baby, drill!” Trump has threatened to boost oil production in order to threaten Russian oil sales which still happen despite the sanctions. Oil does at least seem to be uppermost in his mind. Could this be what Trump has in mind when he says he wants to focus more on Asia and the Pacific? Competition with China in production for which minerals and oil are needed? Does he wish to prise Russia away from China? We are at war with Eastasia – we have always been at war with Eastasia?
And what interests does Starmer seem to be following? We hear today about a deal with Palantir, part of Trump aligned big tech, and opening new airport runways, and abandoning green commitments, which big oil would clearly be happy with. Might Starmer be running with the hare and hunting with the hounds?
Geopolitics and resources, baby!
And what is being sold in exchange for this new wealth extraction? Well, the freedom, human rights and self determination of the people of Ukraine, whose dreams of membership of liberal democratic Europe, despite having been fought for by bleeding out their youth for the past three years, must now be abandoned in favour of two rapacious despots, and this is made possible only by virtue of the American people having voted to depart from the free world.
As old Omar Khayyam said,
“I often wonder what the vintners buy,
one half so precious as the goods they sell.”